As we stand on the eve of the real election season, two new national polls today (LA Times/Bloomberg and Q-poll) along with the daily trackers (Rasmussen and Gallup) continue to show a tight race with a small Obama lead.

LA Times/Bloomberg
Registered Voters (June) MoE +/- 3
Obama  45 (49)
McCain 43 (37)

This poll shows the most movement, with the last polling in June.

The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Obama, the first black major-party nominee, may have defused the issue of race, particularly among independents who will form a crucial voting bloc in the November election...

The deteriorating economy and rising energy costs "have been major issues for so long and voters blame the Republicans and George Bush for the problems," says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. Still, Pinkus says, McCain has benefited from voters' concerns about Obama's experience and ability to handle an international crisis.

Note that when this poll had Obama up by 12 in June, it was dismissed as an outlier along with the equally volatile Newsweek poll. Today's numbers are consistent what other polls show (see rest of post.) According to the news article, Obama still benefits from increased D enthusiasm. The LA Times version speculates on McCain negative attacks because Obama's fav/unfav now resemble McCain's. OTOH,

The poll found that McCain, long an unpopular figure among conservatives, has had more success than Obama in rallying his party's base. Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama.

But independents, who could wind up deciding the election, favor Obama, 47% to 36%.

And Obama's backers are more enthusiastic than McCain's, suggesting that the Democrat holds greater potential for a strong turnout of supporters. The poll found that 78% of Obama's supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy; 61% of McCain's backers felt that way.

Bottom line is that, like in other polls, the GOP base has consolidated while the Dem base, while more enthusiastic, has not. Obama has room to move up, but it'll take work to get there. And then there are the conventions, which, based on these numbers, come at the right time for Obama. How much upward room there is for McCain remains unclear, based on what is a poor showing amongst indies (Obama favored by 11) and the stated 9 in 10 GOP voters picking McCain. In all the polls, base support is a major difference between the candidates, though I haven't seen the cross-tabs or the exact figures (or the party ID numbers, for that matter.) But if indies favor Obama by that much, he's in decent shape.

Quinnipiac
Likely Voters  (July) MoE +/- 2.5

Obama   47  (50)
McCain  42  (37)

Notes:

In the presidential matchup, McCain leads 46 - 41 percent among men, up from 47 - 44 percent July 15, and 48 - 40 percent among white voters, compared to 49 - 42 percent last month. He also leads 65 - 25 percent among white Evangelical Christians, up from 61 - 29 percent.

But Obama leads 53 - 39 percent among women, compared to 55 - 36 percent last month, and 94 - 4 percent among black voters. The Democrat leads 55 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, compared to 63 - 31 percent last month. Obama's strength among voters 35 to 54 is up from 48 - 44 percent to 49 - 41 percent. McCain leads 47 - 40 percent among voters over 55, compared to a 45 - 44 percent split July 15.

Independent voters shift from a 44 - 44 percent split to a 45 - 39 percent Democratic tilt.

"The poll underlines Sen. Barack Obama's strengths and weaknesses. Strengths: He leads overall and he's strong with women, even stronger among young folks and astronomically strong with blacks. Weaknesses: Sen. John McCain beats him among white voters, men, older folks and white Catholics," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Also, theGallup tracker has Obama 45 and McCain 44 (RV) while Rasmussen has Obama 47, McCain 45 (LV, with leaners).

With the VP choices and conventions about to start, the polls reflect the state of the race as of now. As of now, Obama as a tightening but small lead. And as of now is about to change. Maybe McCain will figure out how to get above 44% (or, for a change, lead.) Maybe Obama will finish consolidating wavering Dems and shore up his standing with the senior set.

We shall see in the next two weeks. Since polling over Labor Day is tough, the first helpful polls will be right after that. But if you want to look at historical VP bounces while you await the VP choices, try this recent post by Mark Blumenthal.

Via MyDD, Biden announces it himself:

Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya.

He and Richardson can now fight over secretary of state.

So who's left? Assuming slotted speakers at the DNC are not the Veep, then Kaine is out. He's speaking Thursday night before Gore and Obama. Kerry is speaking Wednesday.

Who's that leave? Daschle, Sebelius, and "dark horse".

Of course, slotted speakers can always be rescheduled...

Having once been the happy owner of a 13.75% mortgage -- obtained through a state program for first time home buyers at a time when the bank was advertising 18% -- the inflation rate of the early 1980s is not something for which I'm nostalgic. But for those longing to bring back the days of Ronald Reagan, this should warm those cockles.

U.S. wholesale prices took another unexpectedly steep jump in July and shot up at the fastest year-on-year rate in 27 years, according to a government report on Tuesday that was certain to fan fears about a potential surge in inflation. ... The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, which measures prices at the factory door, climbed 1.2 percent after a 1.8 percent gain in June.

"Core" inflation, for those people who don't use energy or eat food, was also up sharply, while home building took another plunge. The decline in gas prices next month will probably cool things down a bit, which is good, because if we continued at an average of the last two months we'd be looking at an 18% annual rate.

But be of good cheer! So far wages aren't coming close to keeping up with this new round of inflation, so that traditional "price-wage-price" spiral is only "price-price-price." That's better, right?

I'll never understand why this took so damn long.

Just in time for the closing rush of the presidential election, MSNBC is shaking up its prime-time programming lineup, removing the long-time host –- and one-time general manager of the network — Dan Abrams from his 9 p.m. program and replacing him with Rachel Maddow, who has emerged as a favored political commentator for the all-news cable channel.

The moves, which were confirmed by MSNBC executives Tuesday, are expected to be finalized by Wednesday, with Mr. Abrams’s last program on Thursday. After MSNBC’s extensive coverage of the two political conventions during the next two weeks, Ms. Maddow will begin her program on Sept. 8.

Her show will follow Olbermann's, and a HUGE congratulations to one of the smartest voices on cable land. The Olbermann-Maddow 1-2 punch will be potent. Now, if we could get a decent lead-in for Olbermann, we'd have a serious block of programming on our hands.

Yes, it's in a recommended diary by MLDB, but it's worth repeating here. The DNC's latest ad about how John McCain defines "rich" kicks ass: